BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+150%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Towhee In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.7–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.7–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.65.6
20264.22.65.7
20274.22.75.7
20284.22.75.7
20294.32.75.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA402024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA302024
Moskee 2WYOMING292021
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA212019
Moskee 3WYOMING212024
MoskeeWYOMING202001
CusterMONTANA192022
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA182004
HighwoodMONTANA102024
JordanMONTANA102024
BrusettMONTANA92024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
WyarnoWYOMING92024
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
RecluseWYOMING72016
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
SundanceWYOMING62024
St XavierMONTANA52011
BrandenbergMONTANA52019
Custer 2MONTANA52024
Bull Mtn.MONTANA52019
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA52018
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA52011
MeadowdaleWYOMING51995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.