BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+157%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Towhee In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.65.6
20274.12.65.7
20284.22.75.7
20294.22.75.7
20304.22.75.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA362025
WyarnoWYOMING292025
Moskee 2WYOMING292021
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA252025
Moskee 3WYOMING242025
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA212019
MoskeeWYOMING202001
CusterMONTANA192022
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA182004
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA132025
SundanceWYOMING132025
SavageMONTANA122025
Hehn DrawMONTANA122025
JordanMONTANA102024
Miles CityMONTANA102025
Chuffey SpringMONTANA102025
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
HighwoodMONTANA92025
BrusettMONTANA92024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
RecluseWYOMING72016
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
St XavierMONTANA52011
Cabin CreekMONTANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.