BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 946% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+946%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 946% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Spotted Towhee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.271.0
20270.660.281.0
20280.670.291.0
20290.680.311.1
20300.700.321.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BradyNEBRASKA532025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA52012
BoelusNEBRASKA42022
BrownleeNEBRASKA21995
NenzelNEBRASKA22025
BassettNEBRASKA22023
HendleyNEBRASKA22025
PhillipsburgKANSAS12022
Jewell 2KANSAS12016
Ash ValleyKANSAS12000
JamestownKANSAS12014
KearneyNEBRASKA12011
SumnerNEBRASKA12015
HolbrookNEBRASKA12017
BartleyNEBRASKA12025
BartlettNEBRASKA11972
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12008
JohnstownNEBRASKA11994
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12018
TableNEBRASKA12017
GordonNEBRASKA12010
RinggoldNEBRASKA12024
MullenNEBRASKA12017
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12024
BerwynNEBRASKA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.