BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Great Basin has surged: up 286% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+286%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
179Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Great Basin: up 286% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.3–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.3–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.43.15.7
20274.53.15.8
20284.53.25.8
20294.63.35.9
20304.63.35.9

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SnowdenWASHINGTON602025
LeavenworthWASHINGTON582024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON572025
HawthorneNEVADA442001
KendallWASHINGTON382025
NewcastleUTAH362025
Fish CreekNEVADA352021
AustinNEVADA352018
BartleCALIFORNIA302021
TionestaCALIFORNIA242021
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON241987
TwispWASHINGTON212024
Mt HoodOREGON202025
GardnervilleNEVADA182012
MazamaWASHINGTON182022
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON182025
Badger CreekOREGON172025
Carson RiverNEVADA162002
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA152011
AlmoIDAHO152025
Humboldt NfNEVADA142019
NewhalemWASHINGTON142025
ConcreteWASHINGTON132025
NubieberCALIFORNIA122018
Ruby ValleyNEVADA122001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.