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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.814
2026118.814
2027118.814
2028118.814
2029118.814

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON792024
EverettWASHINGTON572024
Warm BeachWASHINGTON492017
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA432024
IssaquahWASHINGTON431987
RainierWASHINGTON402019
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA392019
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA392017
GarfieldOREGON392023
Port AngelesWASHINGTON382024
UmpquaOREGON372024
Mendota 3WASHINGTON372024
AdairOREGON362024
TualatinOREGON352024
AlderpointCALIFORNIA342012
Fish RockCALIFORNIA332014
GreenOREGON312024
MccloudCALIFORNIA292021
South ElmaWASHINGTON292024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON292024
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA272016
DerbyOREGON271993
HullvilleCALIFORNIA262019
LongvaleCALIFORNIA252023
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA252022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.