BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Spotted Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026128.914
2027128.914
2028128.914
2029129.014
2030129.014

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RainierWASHINGTON772025
GarfieldOREGON762025
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON582025
Port AngelesWASHINGTON532025
EverettWASHINGTON522025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON492017
IssaquahWASHINGTON431987
UmpquaOREGON422025
GreenOREGON422025
ScappooseOREGON412025
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA392019
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA392017
ElktonOREGON362025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA342012
Fish RockCALIFORNIA332014
TualatinOREGON312025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA302025
MccloudCALIFORNIA292021
South ElmaWASHINGTON292024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON292024
Mendota 3WASHINGTON282025
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA272016
DerbyOREGON271993
Secret ValOREGON272025
HullvilleCALIFORNIA262019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.