BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 709% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+709%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 709% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 3.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 3.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026112.820
2027112.920
2028112.920
2029112.920
2030123.020

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA932025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO712025
SprucedaleARIZONA542025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA482025
PrescottARIZONA342025
Forest LakesARIZONA342025
Aztec PeakARIZONA321978
Skull ValleyARIZONA312024
PortalARIZONA252025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA222025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO142025
Carr MtnARIZONA132025
DragoonARIZONA132009
WilliamsARIZONA122025
PinetopARIZONA92022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO92025
RuckerARIZONA82009
Happy JackARIZONA52025
BlueARIZONA41991
PatagoniaARIZONA42025
CutterARIZONA42000
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
San SimonARIZONA31979
SunizonaARIZONA31997
MaineARIZONA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.