BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 570% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+570%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 570% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 2.5–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 2.5–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025112.419
2026112.519
2027112.520
2028112.520
2029112.520

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PrescottARIZONA942022
Forest LakesARIZONA502024
SprucedaleARIZONA422023
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA352021
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO352024
Aztec PeakARIZONA321978
Skull ValleyARIZONA312024
PortalARIZONA292024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA202023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO162024
DragoonARIZONA132009
Carr MtnARIZONA102024
PinetopARIZONA92022
ReserveNEW-MEXICO92023
RuckerARIZONA82009
AlpineARIZONA72023
PatagoniaARIZONA62024
WilliamsARIZONA62019
BlueARIZONA41991
CutterARIZONA42000
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
San SimonARIZONA31979
SunizonaARIZONA31997
FlagstaffARIZONA22019
MaineARIZONA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.