BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

12×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Spotted Towhee In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.25–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.25–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.211.5
20260.870.221.5
20270.890.231.5
20280.900.241.6
20290.910.251.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA412024
CrawfordNEBRASKA122024
TrincheraCOLORADO92022
FarleyNEW-MEXICO62024
ElbertCOLORADO42024
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO22021
Pine BluffWYOMING21992
KiowaCOLORADO11996
Gordon CreekCOLORADO12024
VillegreenCOLORADO12024
Kiowa 2COLORADO12021
NinaviewCOLORADO12021
Fort MorganCOLORADO12021
JulesburgCOLORADO12016
ArsenalCOLORADO11991
RockportCOLORADO12014
WallaceKANSAS12010
PaxtonNEBRASKA12012
AgateNEBRASKA11999
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12015
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12018
BereaNEBRASKA11984
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO11996
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11977
LoganNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.