BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+164%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Spotted Towhee In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.003.9
20271.80.003.9
20281.80.003.9
20291.80.003.9
20301.80.003.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinonNEW-MEXICO352024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO302025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO132025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO72017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO31976
Bear MtnTEXAS32025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21977
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22025
GageNEW-MEXICO12021
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12018
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12008
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12013
MarfaTEXAS12004
Chisos BasinTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.