BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Towhee In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.12–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.12–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.110.57
20260.340.110.57
20270.350.120.58
20280.350.120.58
20290.350.120.58

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClevelandMONTANA162024
SpartaNEBRASKA82021
Wolf PointMONTANA62024
RedstoneMONTANA52024
GlasgowMONTANA42024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA42023
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA42024
MidwayNEBRASKA32023
ChinookMONTANA22019
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22022
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA22016
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA22013
VirgelleMONTANA11993
HarlemMONTANA12021
MaltaMONTANA12018
Great FallsMONTANA11973
WhitlashMONTANA12022
SacoMONTANA12023
LambertMONTANA12022
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA12024
TildenNEBRASKA12022
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA12021
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA12021
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA11968
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.