BirdAnalyst
Bird Conservation Region 11

Prairie Potholes

An ecological region spanning Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North-dakota, South-dakota, with 124 survey routes. BCRs are the natural unit for bird trends.

What Is Moving HereNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 128× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Snipe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Curlew has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

How Guilds Are FaringGuild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →

-36%

Grassland birds

19 species
-26%

Generalists

13 species
-20%

Birds of prey

17 species
-13%

Wetland birds

32 species
+1%

Game birds

8 species
+42%

Forest birds

57 species
+46%

Aerial insectivores

19 species
+88%

Shorebirds

8 species
+103%

Arid-land birds

1 species
+137%

Waterfowl

20 species

Survey Routes

Species By FamilyTrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →

Hawks, Eagles & Kites Accipitridae

Bald Eagle +974%Broad-winged Hawk +25%Cooper's Hawk +65%Ferruginous Hawk +448%Golden Eagle -24%Northern Harrier -6%Red-tailed Hawk +85%Sharp-shinned Hawk +52%Swainson's Hawk +178%

Larks Alaudidae

Horned Lark +61%

Kingfishers Alcedinidae

Belted Kingfisher -14%

Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl Anatidae

American Black Duck +10%American Wigeon -3%Blue-winged Teal +30%Bufflehead +938%Canada Goose 128×Canvasback +180%Cinnamon Teal -38%Common Goldeneye +40%Gadwall +137%Green-winged Teal +70%Hooded Merganser +107%Lesser Scaup +476%Mallard +161%Northern Pintail -10%Northern Shoveler +213%Redhead +162%Ring-necked Duck +489%Ruddy Duck +154%Trumpeter Swan +363%Wood Duck 13×

Swifts Apodidae

Chimney Swift -71%

Herons, Egrets & Bitterns Ardeidae

American Bittern +13%Black-crowned Night Heron -73%Great Blue Heron +214%Great Egret +760%Green Heron -38%Least Bittern +135%Western Cattle-Egret +154%

Waxwings Bombycillidae

Cedar Waxwing +196%

Longspurs & Snow Buntings Calcariidae

Chestnut-collared Longspur -56%Thick-billed Longspur +371%

Nightjars & Nighthawks Caprimulgidae

Common Nighthawk +319%Eastern Whip-poor-will -44%

Cardinals & Grosbeaks Cardinalidae

Black-headed Grosbeak +30%Blue Grosbeak +148%Dickcissel -35%Indigo Bunting +17%Lazuli Bunting +11%Northern Cardinal +145%Rose-breasted Grosbeak +109%Scarlet Tanager -65%

New World Vultures Cathartidae

Turkey Vulture +676%

Plovers & Lapwings Charadriidae

Killdeer +55%

Pigeons & Doves Columbidae

Eurasian Collared-Dove 99×Mourning Dove +4%Rock Pigeon +31%

Crows, Jays & Magpies Corvidae

American Crow -55%Black-billed Magpie +20%Blue Jay -36%Common Raven 25×

Cuckoos, Roadrunners & Anis Cuculidae

Black-billed Cuckoo -76%Yellow-billed Cuckoo -74%

Falcons & Caracaras Falconidae

American Kestrel -61%Merlin -7%Prairie Falcon -14%

Finches Fringillidae

American Goldfinch -10%House Finch 12×Pine Siskin +147%Purple Finch -64%

Loons Gaviidae

Common Loon +40%

Cranes Gruidae

Sandhill Crane -51%

Swallows & Martins Hirundinidae

Bank Swallow -2%Barn Swallow -3%Cliff Swallow +301%Northern Rough-winged Swallow +90%Purple Martin -34%Tree Swallow +615%

Blackbirds & Orioles Icteridae

Baltimore Oriole +12%Bobolink +2%Brewer's Blackbird +118%Brown-headed Cowbird +45%Bullock's Oriole +103%Common Grackle -16%Eastern Meadowlark +82%Orchard Oriole +186%Red-winged Blackbird +6%Western Meadowlark -54%Yellow-headed Blackbird +133%

Yellow-breasted Chat Icteriidae

Yellow-breasted Chat -76%

Shrikes Laniidae

Loggerhead Shrike -21%

Gulls, Terns & Skimmers Laridae

Black Tern -10%California Gull +312%Common Tern +86%Forster's Tern +302%Franklin's Gull +85%Ring-billed Gull +746%

Mockingbirds & Thrashers Mimidae

Brown Thrasher -57%Gray Catbird +95%Northern Mockingbird -50%

Wagtails & Pipits Motacillidae

Sprague's Pipit -41%

New World Quail Odontophoridae

Northern Bobwhite -42%

Chickadees & Titmice Paridae

Black-capped Chickadee -32%Tufted Titmouse -77%

Wood-Warblers Parulidae

American Redstart 11×Black-and-white Warbler +563%Chestnut-sided Warbler -53%Common Yellowthroat +20%Mourning Warbler -38%Nashville Warbler -54%Northern Waterthrush +546%Ovenbird -21%Yellow Warbler +257%

New World Sparrows Passerellidae

Baird's Sparrow -70%Brewer's Sparrow +103%Chipping Sparrow +593%Clay-colored Sparrow +53%Eastern Towhee -39%Field Sparrow +39%Grasshopper Sparrow -22%Lark Bunting -89%Lark Sparrow +244%LeConte's Sparrow -79%Nelson's Sparrow +349%Savannah Sparrow +15%Song Sparrow +69%Spotted Towhee +112%Swamp Sparrow 13×Vesper Sparrow +31%White-throated Sparrow -62%

Old World Sparrows Passeridae

House Sparrow -53%

Pelicans Pelecanidae

American White Pelican +58%

Cormorants Phalacrocoracidae

Double-crested Cormorant +235%

Pheasants, Grouse & Turkeys Phasianidae

Gray Partridge +146%Greater Prairie-Chicken +430%Greater Sage-Grouse +65%Ring-necked Pheasant +33%Ruffed Grouse -85%Sharp-tailed Grouse +106%Wild Turkey 34×

Woodpeckers Picidae

Downy Woodpecker +41%Hairy Woodpecker +304%Pileated Woodpecker +146%Red-bellied Woodpecker +129%Red-headed Woodpecker -56%Yellow-bellied Sapsucker +570%

Grebes Podicipedidae

Eared Grebe 39×Horned Grebe -48%Pied-billed Grebe +141%Red-necked Grebe 21×Western Grebe -15%

Rails, Gallinules & Coots Rallidae

American Coot -53%Sora +147%Virginia Rail +36%Yellow Rail -16%

Avocets & Stilts Recurvirostridae

American Avocet +147%

Sandpipers & Allies Scolopacidae

Long-billed Curlew 15×Marbled Godwit +71%Spotted Sandpiper +501%Upland Sandpiper +20%Willet +112%Wilson's Phalarope +64%Wilson's Snipe 34×

Nuthatches Sittidae

White-breasted Nuthatch +122%

Owls Strigidae

Burrowing Owl -94%Eastern Screech-Owl -63%Great Horned Owl -58%Short-eared Owl -83%

Starlings & Mynas Sturnidae

European Starling -29%

Ibises & Spoonbills Threskiornithidae

White-faced Ibis 21×

Hummingbirds Trochilidae

Ruby-throated Hummingbird -40%

Wrens Troglodytidae

Marsh Wren +584%Northern House Wren +132%Rock Wren +46%Sedge Wren +588%

Thrushes Turdidae

American Robin +163%Eastern Bluebird -53%Mountain Bluebird -61%Veery +23%Wood Thrush -56%

Tyrant Flycatchers Tyrannidae

Alder Flycatcher -63%Eastern Kingbird +3%Eastern Phoebe +15%Eastern Wood-Pewee +88%Great Crested Flycatcher +274%Least Flycatcher +193%Say's Phoebe 11×Western Kingbird -35%Western Wood-Pewee 15×Willow Flycatcher +144%

Vireos Vireonidae

Bell's Vireo +39%Red-eyed Vireo +381%Warbling Vireo +308%Yellow-throated Vireo +344%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.