BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Analysis

StrigidaeBirds of preyMegascops asio

Eastern Screech-Owl has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
793RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eastern Screech-Owl

The Eastern Screech-Owl (Megascops asio) is a North American member of the Owls (Strigidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
5–27.5 in long (13–70 cm) — a nocturnal raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 793 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 40 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Strigidae · Birds of prey

Notable Eastern Screech-Owl TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Screech-Owl. See the full index history below.

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.01
20270.010.000.01
20280.010.000.01
20290.010.000.01
20300.010.000.01

Where the Eastern Screech-Owl Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl, sized by most recent count.

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend by State

Eastern Screech-Owl population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-60%197045
Arkansas-37%197020
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Connecticut-27%19769
Delawareinsufficient datan/a6
Florida-66%196844
Georgia-57%197444
Illinois-28%197226
Indiana-66%197112
Iowa-38%197414
Kansas+19%19869
Kentucky-11%197233
Louisiana-51%197218
Maineinsufficient datan/a2
Maryland-54%197236
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a6
Michigan-67%197717
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a7
Mississippi-50%197813
Missouri-70%198820
Montanainsufficient datan/a1
Nebraska-50%199711
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a1
New Jersey-12%198613
New York-36%196934
North Carolina-75%197446
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a4
Ohio+42%196825
Oklahoma-40%197414
Pennsylvania-67%196853
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
South Carolina-64%197718
South Dakota-1%197310
Tennessee+21%196930
Texas-90%196959
Vermontinsufficient datan/a3
Virginia-15%196936
West Virginia-72%197235
Wisconsin+16%197414
Wyominginsufficient datan/a3

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eastern Screech-Owl population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-63%197714
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-40%197125
Badlands and Prairies-42%197411
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+29%197422
Edwards Plateau-68%197811
Oaks and Prairies-54%197116
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-31%197156
Prairie Hardwood Transition-44%197132
Central Hardwoods-18%196869
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+12%197028
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-57%197813
Southeastern Coastal Plain-64%1968135
Appalachian Mountains-59%1968188
Piedmont-72%197058
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+2%196950
Peninsular Florida-68%197028
Tamaulipan Brushlands-85%197016

Eastern Screech-Owl Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 73% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.