BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Screech-Owl In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Eastern Screech-Owl in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-68%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Screech-Owl has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eastern Screech-Owl In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.07
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07
20280.010.000.07
20290.010.000.07

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinelandsFLORIDA31991
Myakka HeadFLORIDA22004
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA21978
Shawano 2FLORIDA22007
RomeoFLORIDA11974
Dale MabryFLORIDA11972
St AugustineFLORIDA11980
BelmoreFLORIDA11980
Polk CityFLORIDA11967
ScottsmoorFLORIDA11998
KenansvilleFLORIDA11975
SalvistaFLORIDA11972
Plantation KFLORIDA11993
Ft MccoyFLORIDA11993
FlemingtonFLORIDA11991
Winter GardnFLORIDA12012
St LucieFLORIDA12014
Weaver StnFLORIDA12014
Island GroveFLORIDA12009
Citrus ParkFLORIDA12000
FlamingoFLORIDA12021
Mt. OliveFLORIDA12024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA12004
OcalaFLORIDA12010
CitrusFLORIDA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.