BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Screech-Owl in North Carolina has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-77%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Screech-Owl Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Screech-Owl has collapsed in North Carolina: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.08
20260.020.000.08
20270.020.000.08
20280.020.000.08
20290.020.000.08

Eastern Screech-Owl Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kinston220042000
Mooresville219801980
Cullowhee219741974
Montague220142006
Oteen219841984
Merrimon120081989
Myrtle Grove120112011
Wards Corner120152012
Raeford119911991
Sheep Ridge120012001
Broad Creek120082008
Arapahoe119891988
Dismal Swamp120142005
Speed120241977
Jordan120052005
Waterville120192001
Table Rock120122012
Brevard119681968
Chowan River120052005
Fontana120041978
California119921975
Arcola120221974
Youngsville119721972
Copeland120242000
Sturgills120132002

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.