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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Screech-Owl in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Screech-Owl Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Screech-Owl has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.040.000.09
20230.040.000.09
20240.040.000.09
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09

Eastern Screech-Owl Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural Retrt220131994
Amherst220091969
Dismal Swamp220031994
Star Tannery119931982
W Augusta120011977
Churchville120031966
Stanley120151970
Tryme119991996
Nat Tunnel120131985
Jerome120211991
Port Royal120002000
Douthat119971992
Potts Mtn.119991997
Isom119891984
Mountain Lk.120152015
Covington120191990
Gloucester119971997
Chincoteag W119991999
Carters Brdg119921989
Concord119971997
Hall119821967
Loft Mtn119971997
Front Royal120132007
Pine Mtn.120012001
Surry120012001

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.