BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Screech-Owl in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Screech-Owl Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Screech-Owl has fallen sharply in Pennsylvania: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.05
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.05

Eastern Screech-Owl Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Espyville319761976
Bow Bridge220222022
Plesant Grov219991999
Geeseytown219941988
Clear Spring219821974
Harmonsburg120222022
Ferris Crnrs120092009
Whig Hill120182018
Wyalusing120022002
Lynch120182018
N Washington120191994
N Pine Grove120152015
Betula120012001
Eldred119811981
Ramsey120112011
Jeannette120112003
Cherry Sprs119851985
Mawr Glen120042004
Austinville119701970
Rush119991999
Marsh Hill120072004
Millville120022002
Starlight119921992
Greentown120011987
Susquehanna120081975

Eastern Screech-Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.