BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Screech-Owl In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Eastern Screech-Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Screech-Owl has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.37
20260.010.000.36
20270.010.000.36
20280.000.000.35
20290.000.000.35

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
George WestTEXAS41974
San YgnacioTEXAS31967
RandadoTEXAS21992
Mirando CityTEXAS21973
EncinalTEXAS21975
La PryorTEXAS21972
HondoTEXAS21986
RachalTEXAS11973
Agua NuevaTEXAS11977
ZapataTEXAS11984
KingsvilleTEXAS12011
El IndioTEXAS11998
El SauzTEXAS12001
GuerraTEXAS11992
Encinal 2TEXAS12022
SejitaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.