BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Screech-Owl In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsBirds of prey

Eastern Screech-Owl in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
188Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Screech-Owl has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Screech-Owl In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05
20300.020.000.05

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE51998
LisleNEW-YORK31974
CattaraugusNEW-YORK31972
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA32014
RuthbelleWEST-VIRGINIA32021
TradeALABAMA21984
KehoeKENTUCKY21983
PhelpsKENTUCKY21997
AccidentMARYLAND22005
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA21974
OteenNORTH-CAROLINA21984
Mohican S.F.OHIO22000
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA22022
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA21999
GeeseytownPENNSYLVANIA21994
Clear SpringPENNSYLVANIA21982
Corryton RdTENNESSEE21977
Star TanneryVIRGINIA22025
JeromeVIRGINIA22025
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA22013
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA21995
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA21976
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA22006
McdonaldWEST-VIRGINIA22005
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.