BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Screech-Owl In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Eastern Screech-Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-43%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Screech-Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Screech-Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.03
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Screech-Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MerideanWISCONSIN32010
FestinaIOWA21968
LawrenceMICHIGAN22000
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12022
BravoMICHIGAN12001
New TroyMICHIGAN12001
BeldingMICHIGAN11985
MottvilleMICHIGAN11991
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN11991
HomerMICHIGAN12017
FowlervilleMICHIGAN11983
AdrianMICHIGAN11979
S LyonsMICHIGAN11966
DeckervilleMICHIGAN12010
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN12015
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN12014
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN12008
ChatfieldMINNESOTA11995
MillvilleMINNESOTA11976
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA12022
GraytownOHIO11975
N BaltimoreOHIO11988
GilmantonWISCONSIN11984
HatfieldWISCONSIN11998
Stevens PtWISCONSIN11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.