BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Analysis

PasserellidaeGrassland birdsSpizella pallida

Clay-colored Sparrow has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
450RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Clay-colored Sparrow

The Clay-colored Sparrow (Spizella pallida) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 450 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Passerellidae · Grassland birds

Notable Clay-colored Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.49–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.49–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.470.86
20270.670.480.87
20280.680.480.87
20290.680.490.88
20300.690.490.88

Where the Clay-colored Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend by State

Clay-colored Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a3
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a2
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Iowainsufficient datan/a4
Maineinsufficient datan/a1
Michigan+89%196849
Minnesota+1%196987
Montana+123%197070
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a4
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a8
North Dakota+16%196951
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a1
South Dakota+34%196929
Utahinsufficient datan/a1
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a4
Wisconsin-47%196888
Wyoming-63%197447

Clay-colored Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Clay-colored Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Rockies+172%197050
Prairie Potholes+37%1969105
Boreal Hardwood Transition-34%1968105
Badlands and Prairies-6%196973
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-19%197011
Prairie Hardwood Transition-31%196886

Clay-colored Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 11% since 1968. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.