BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Northern Rockies has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+172%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clay-colored Sparrow has surged in Northern Rockies: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.13–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.13–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.110.59
20270.350.120.59
20280.360.120.59
20290.360.120.60
20300.360.130.60

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick Draw 5WYOMING242007
Heart ButteMONTANA142025
St. Mary 2MONTANA112025
HarmonyWYOMING111987
GlenMONTANA81980
WalcottWYOMING72014
PathfinderWYOMING52023
Great DivideCOLORADO41977
WorlandWYOMING41994
BaggsWYOMING42004
Patrick Draw 6WYOMING42011
East Glacier ParkMONTANA32025
RaynesfordMONTANA32024
KalispellMONTANA22025
AugustaMONTANA22025
BoulderMONTANA22024
Red RockMONTANA22023
Willow Creek 2MONTANA22024
DuboisWYOMING22017
Hunter PeakWYOMING22010
MooseWYOMING21988
TensleepWYOMING22009
Crazy WomanWYOMING22015
St MaryMONTANA12008
PolsonMONTANA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.