Guild

Grassland Birds

29 species tracked. As a group, grassland birds are -49%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Grassland Birds Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds as a group is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds as a group is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.22.2
20271.71.12.2
20281.61.12.1
20291.61.12.1
20301.51.02.0

Grassland Birds By State

Grassland birds group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Georgia-92%5
South Carolina-91%5
New Jersey-91%6
North Carolina-86%7
West Virginia-85%7
Alabama-85%6
Connecticut-84%3
Louisiana-82%5
Wisconsin-81%15
Michigan-78%14
Tennessee-77%6
Mississippi-74%6
Kentucky-74%9
Maryland-73%8
Pennsylvania-72%8
California-70%7
Indiana-69%13
Iowa-68%13
Virginia-67%8
Arizona-67%9
Colorado-66%15
Maine-66%6
Illinois-66%13
Ohio-65%12
Wyoming-62%17
Vermont-62%6
New Hampshire-58%4
New York-56%9
Missouri-52%12
Minnesota-52%15
Arkansas-51%6
North Dakota-46%18
New Mexico-44%11
Texas-44%12
Idaho-41%9
South Dakota-41%17
Massachusetts-38%4
Kansas-31%14
Washington-29%8
Nevada-20%7
Nebraska-20%16
Oregon-18%8
Montana-5%16
Delaware+3%4
Utah+10%9
Alaska+11%9
Oklahoma+23%11

Member Species

Species in the Grassland birds guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-81%1968
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-81%1968
Eastern Yellow WagtailMotacillidae-73%1994
Baird's SparrowPasserellidae-73%1969
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-73%1968
BobolinkIcteridae-69%1968
Chestnut-collared LongspurCalcariidae-67%1969
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae-65%1969
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-63%1969
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-50%1968
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-50%1968
Sprague's PipitMotacillidae-37%1969
DickcisselCardinalidae-22%1968
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-14%1968
Lapland LongspurCalcariidae+1%1984
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+10%1968
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+11%1968
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae+17%1968
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+35%1968
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+48%1968
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae+66%1969
Northern ShrikeLaniidae+67%1985
Horned LarkAlaudidae+67%1968
Chihuahuan MeadowlarkIcteridae+162%1969
Botteri's SparrowPasserellidae+267%1971
Snow BuntingCalcariidae+638%1986
Thick-billed LongspurCalcariidae16×1969
Smith's LongspurCalcariidae17×1997
American PipitMotacillidae19×1976