Guild

Grassland Birds

29 species tracked. As a group, grassland birds are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Grassland Birds Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds as a group is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds as a group is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.22.2
20261.71.22.1
20271.61.12.1
20281.61.12.1
20291.51.02.0

Grassland Birds By State

Grassland birds group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Georgia-92%5
South Carolina-91%5
New Jersey-91%6
Connecticut-86%3
North Carolina-85%7
Alabama-85%6
Louisiana-84%5
West Virginia-83%7
Wisconsin-81%15
Michigan-80%14
Tennessee-79%6
Kentucky-76%9
Mississippi-73%6
California-73%7
Maryland-73%8
Pennsylvania-72%8
Arizona-69%9
Iowa-67%13
Indiana-67%13
Colorado-67%15
Illinois-66%13
Maine-66%6
Virginia-65%8
Ohio-65%12
Vermont-64%6
Wyoming-56%16
New York-55%9
Minnesota-53%15
Missouri-52%12
New Hampshire-52%4
North Dakota-48%18
Texas-47%12
Arkansas-47%6
Massachusetts-46%4
South Dakota-44%17
New Mexico-43%11
Idaho-36%9
Kansas-32%14
Nebraska-26%16
Oregon-23%8
Nevada-22%7
Washington-21%8
Montana-13%16
Alaska+3%9
Delaware+4%4
Utah+5%9
Oklahoma+21%11

Member Species

Species in the Grassland birds guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-82%1968
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-81%1968
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-74%1968
Eastern Yellow WagtailMotacillidae-71%1994
Baird's SparrowPasserellidae-71%1969
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-70%1969
BobolinkIcteridae-70%1968
Chestnut-collared LongspurCalcariidae-68%1969
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-52%1968
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-51%1968
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae-45%1969
Sprague's PipitMotacillidae-30%1969
DickcisselCardinalidae-22%1968
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae-19%1968
Northern ShrikeLaniidae+1%1985
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+2%1968
Lapland LongspurCalcariidae+3%1984
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae+10%1968
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+17%1968
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+22%1968
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+42%1968
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae+61%1969
Horned LarkAlaudidae+62%1968
Chihuahuan MeadowlarkIcteridae+160%1969
Botteri's SparrowPasserellidae+317%1971
Snow BuntingCalcariidae+639%1986
Thick-billed LongspurCalcariidae15×1969
Smith's LongspurCalcariidae19×1997
American PipitMotacillidae20×1976