BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grassland Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

11 species in this guild. As a group they are -51%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Texas, down 51% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Texas is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Texas is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.30.388.3
20264.10.148.0
20273.80.007.8
20283.60.007.6
20293.40.007.3

Member Species In Texas

Grassland birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-80%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-77%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae-65%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-25%
DickcisselCardinalidae-20%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae+25%
Horned LarkAlaudidae+80%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+99%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae+218%
Lark BuntingPasserellidae+357%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae+742%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.