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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Texas has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
183Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Texas: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0019
20270.000.0019
20280.000.0019
20290.000.0019
20300.000.0019

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Georgetown10919791967
Vanderbilt8519761969
Mount Zion8320251994
Winnie7220251967
Wolfe City6619871969
Goliad Prairie6320162004
Charlie5920251994
Thornton5819841968
Henrietta5520221971
Stowell5120251968
Loyola Beach 25020252010
Weinert4819941969
Rhome4620251967
Oyster Lake4520251995
Muldoon4320251970
Oakwood4219951967
Chandler4120041968
Hobson4020251968
Katy3820251968
Port Acres3820251994
Three Rivers3720251994
Loyola Beach3520091994
Beaver Creek3420251994
Georgetown3319851967
Gainesville3220251967

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.