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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.75–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.75–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025194.335
2026193.434
2027182.533
2028171.632
2029160.7531

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sni Mills13119901967
Madison10920241971
Cole Camp7619901971
Mcfall7120241994
Lucerne6920212016
Stet6219951972
Trenton5720241967
Miller5220242014
Emden5020242017
West Plains5020242014
Hamilton4419851972
Ohio4320241972
Rensselaer4220241971
New Hampton4220242014
Sticklervill4120241970
Warren3719841967
Laclede3720241994
Frankford3620241985
Kirksville3520241994
Kahoka23420242002
Auburn3420242014
Kahoka3119981967
Deventer3020241967
Kingsville3020241992
Lincoln2920242013

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.