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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.28–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.28–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026193.834
2027182.933
2028172.032
2029161.231
2030150.2830

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sni Mills13119901967
Madison10920241971
New Hampton10220252014
Lucerne9320252016
Mcfall8720251994
Cole Camp7619901971
Akers6520251967
Stet6219951972
Rensselaer5620251971
Emden5020242017
West Plains4820252014
Hamilton4419851972
Kirksville4420251994
Handley4120251967
Laclede4120251994
Miller4020252014
Sticklervill3820251970
Frankford3820251985
Warren3719841967
Centertown3520251973
Kahoka23420242002
Huntsville3220251967
Rockingham3220251969
Kingsville3220251992
Richland3220252014

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.