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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Pennsylvania: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.004.3
20270.000.004.3
20280.000.004.3
20290.000.004.3
20300.000.004.3

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Aspers2519891968
Little Marsh2020241967
Rector1919771966
Doubling Gap1819771966
Akeley1519791966
Ryde1420051968
Normalville1219741966
Harmonsburg1120251966
Needmore1119911966
Big Flat1119811966
Stoneybreak1120251992
Arnot920251969
Clover620251981
Rush620251970
Waller620251971
Honesdale620251972
Patton620231970
Pottstown619871966
Labott619831966
Berwick620241985
Sigel520251981
Austinville520251966
Bow Bridge520251969
Portersville519881973
Mifflintown520251966

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.