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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Pennsylvania: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.004.2
20260.000.004.2
20270.000.004.2
20280.000.004.2
20290.000.004.2

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Aspers2519891968
Little Marsh2020241967
Rector1919771966
Doubling Gap1819771966
Akeley1519791966
Ryde1420051968
Arnot1220241969
Normalville1219741966
Harmonsburg1120231966
Needmore1119911966
Big Flat1119811966
Stoneybreak920241992
Waller820241971
Clover720241981
Ferris Crnrs720241966
Teepleville720241966
Sigel620241981
Honesdale620241972
Patton620231970
Martinsburg620241970
Pottstown619871966
Labott619831966
Mill Run620241978
Berwick620241985
N Pine Grove520241969

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.