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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in North Carolina: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina is projected to fall about 89% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-89%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina is projected to fall about 89% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.005.8
20271.20.005.5
20280.980.005.3
20290.720.005.0
20300.460.004.8

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherryville3419681966
Jarvisburg3319991992
Speed3120251966
Jackson2220171995
Mooresville 22120252006
Beargrass1619811966
Climax1320251966
Monticello1320251990
Goldston1320222001
Mooresville1220011966
Rowland1220241990
Saxapahaw1020231966
Gupton1020252001
Oakboro920251969
Jonas Ridge919711968
Montague920251990
Pinetops920241997
South. Pines919961995
Bullock920251997
Ostwalt920252012
Lloyd Xroads820241990
Cypress Lakes820252004
Raeford820251990
Youngsville720251966
Madison719851966

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.