BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in North Carolina: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.005.9
20261.30.005.6
20271.10.005.3
20280.790.005.1
20290.520.004.8

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherryville3419681966
Jarvisburg3319991992
Jackson2220171995
Mooresville 22020242006
Gupton1820242001
Beargrass1619811966
Durham1620241990
Oakboro1420241969
Ostwalt1420242012
Monticello1320241990
Goldston1320222001
Mooresville1220011966
Rowland1220241990
Speed1120241966
Bullock1120241997
Cypress Lakes1120242004
Raeford1120241990
Saxapahaw1020231966
Wilgrove1020241995
Flay1020241990
Jonas Ridge919711968
Pinetops920241997
South. Pines919961995
Climax820241966
Lloyd Xroads820241990

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.