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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Minnesota is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Minnesota is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.001.7
20270.550.001.6
20280.520.001.6
20290.490.001.6
20300.470.001.6

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 21120252013
Chatfield 21120252003
Caledonia820121993
Millville720251968
Redwood Fall620251993
Gluek519731968
Bagley520061995
Nebish420041982
Chatfield319991969
Sherburne Nr320251990
Ash Creek320252004
Debs320191975
Austin320231993
Brainerd320241993
Money Creek220251967
Hartland220171967
Minnetonka220151969
Maynard220001971
Evergreen220252001
Oklee219841979
Nett Lake220182018
Le Roy220231993
Whitewater220001997
Mcgregor220241993
Ashby220031997

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.