BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in New Jersey has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in New Jersey: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.15 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1336.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1336.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.15 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1336.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.002.9
20250.000.002.9
20260.000.002.9
20270.000.002.9
20280.000.002.9

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Bedford1520141969
Deepwater619771969
Ancora419761966
Bennett Mill419761967
Masonville319701966
Toms River219811966
Albion219771966
Clarksville219911969
Hope219921970
Pottersville220221977
Villas219811981
Mt Misery219841976
Woodbury Hgt119941967
Greenwich120121966
Six Points120221978
Sandbrook120231969
Holmansville119891969
Croton120071970
Robbinsville119791966
Midvale119761971
Kemah Lake119931966
Bloomsbury119921969
High Point119811977
Dover119951977
Gillette120021988

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.