BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Tennessee has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Tennessee: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.006.9
20260.730.006.2
20270.000.005.5
20280.000.005.5
20290.000.005.5

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collinwood3720241966
Petersburg3120191966
Glen2920241966
Climer2820041967
Pawpaw2720121966
Union Hill2720241967
Jefferson Cty2220111966
Big Sandy2020241966
Humboldt1720241966
Walland1719891966
Bradyville1620211966
Allens Brdge1620231966
Mansfield1420241966
Corryton Rd1320191966
Campbellsville1120191966
Jones Gap1120191982
Moscow1020241966
Indian Mound1019981966
Soddy819811967
Silver Pt720241966
Tullahoma620151967
Pawpaw 2620232013
Tibbs520241966
Sweetlips520231966
Oliver Spgs520221966

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.