BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Virginia is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Virginia is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.0011
20263.20.0011
20272.90.0010
20282.50.009.8
20292.10.009.5

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville7020241966
Moran2820241996
Wylliesburg2520191971
Natural Brid2320241974
Brandy Station2220242017
Newbern2119821968
Ivanhoe2119681966
Clinchport1819781967
Church Road1620241966
Finchley1620211994
Ringgold1520241976
Brodnax1520241973
Cornland1520141975
Rural Retrt1220241982
Hebron 21220242023
Taylorstown 21220242012
Jerome1120231971
Marion1119821976
Gladys1120241994
Lake Anna1120242021
Taylorstown1020101967
David1020131968
Stanley920241966
Tryme920241975
Big Island920241968

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.