BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in New York has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in New York: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±267.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±267.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±267.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.004.8
20270.000.004.8
20280.000.004.8
20290.000.004.8
20300.000.004.8

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Victory3419721967
Ogdensburg1420251979
Fowler1219681966
Waddington1219981981
Argyle1120241968
Warwick1019741968
Watertown1020121967
Clinton1020101969
West Bangor919991990
Oxford819761967
Duanesburg720251966
Swain720071967
Branchport720241967
Sheridan720251966
Nashville720181967
Pulaski720241967
Naples620251966
Phillips Cr520251967
Philadelphia520251980
Cooperstown419771968
Mcdonough420151967
Vestal Ctr420181966
Hamburg420251967
Cherry Hill420191966
E Youngstown420251966

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.