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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Arkansas: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0012
20260.000.0012
20270.000.0012
20280.000.0012
20290.000.0012

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell4520191967
Centerton3320242010
Farwell3320182010
Zion3020241967
Ravenden Springs2520152010
Stark2220241967
Maynard2220241967
Augusta2020011967
Russell2020212010
Avoca1820241967
Havana1620212010
Harrisburg1220191967
Coal Hill1220231967
Yellville1120222010
England1120242010
Augusta 21020162002
Fulton920241967
Compton720221967
Dell720242010
Eudora620241967
West Tyler619841967
Poyen520071967
Kelso520162010
Ozark Nf519981996
Stamps420241967

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.