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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Arkansas: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0012
20270.000.0012
20280.000.0012
20290.000.0012
20300.000.0012

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell4520191967
Centerton4120252010
Zion3420251967
Farwell3320182010
Stark2520251967
Ravenden Springs2520152010
Maynard2220251967
Augusta2020011967
Russell2020212010
Avoca1820241967
Havana1620212010
Yellville1520252010
Harrisburg1220191967
Coal Hill1220231967
Fulton1020251967
Augusta 21020162002
England820252010
Compton720221967
West Tyler619841967
Poyen520071967
Kelso520162010
Ozark Nf519981996
Stamps420241967
Whitton419911967
Dell420252010

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.