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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Kentucky: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky is projected to fall about 88% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky is projected to fall about 88% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.90.0019
20274.80.0018
20283.70.0017
20292.60.0016
20301.50.0015

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville7319831966
Plum5020251966
Mcbrayer4220251966
Goshen3819991966
Million3719861966
Buena Vista3520171966
Hudson3220251966
Million 23220242006
Iron Bridge2819981966
Bays Fork2820191999
Levee 22820192007
Merrimac2620241967
Sulphur Lick2420241966
Levee2219821966
Johnsonville2120211966
Hodgenville1920031967
Shelbyville1919781966
Canton1820251967
Kings Mtn1720251966
Eastview1720251967
Hodgenville 21720232008
Keysburg1620251968
Shiloh1520251967
Sunnybrook1520221968
Kehoe1519921966

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.