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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Meadowlark Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Kentucky: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.60.0020
20265.50.0019
20274.30.0018
20283.20.0017
20292.10.0016

Eastern Meadowlark Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum7420241966
Boxville7319831966
Mcbrayer5020241966
Goshen3819991966
Million3719861966
Hudson3520241966
Buena Vista3520171966
Million 23220242006
Iron Bridge2819981966
Bays Fork2820191999
Levee 22820192007
Merrimac2620241967
Sulphur Lick2420241966
Eastview2320241967
Levee2219821966
Johnsonville2120211966
Hodgenville1920031967
Shelbyville1919781966
Keysburg1820241968
Cedar Grove1820241966
Kings Mtn1820241966
Hodgenville 21720232008
Sunnybrook1520221968
Kehoe1519921966
Canton1420241967

Eastern Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.