BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas has surged: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+255%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has surged in Texas: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.13.8
20272.51.13.8
20282.51.13.9
20292.51.13.9
20302.51.23.9

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Booker5320251975
Pantex4220251974
Gruver4120251994
Cactus3820251994
El Indio2819721970
Twichell2520251996
Dalhart2220251994
Weinert2119941969
Floydada2120251980
Skellytown1920251996
Texline1820251975
Dougherty1620251996
Waka1220251979
Friona1220252001
Panhandle1220251995
Winchell1120101975
Williams1120251996
Oakwood1019861986
Childress1020251972
Henrietta920221975
San Pedro820171996
Olney720241969
Adamsville620231972
Eldorado620231975
Haskell620251995

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.