BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas has surged: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+218%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has surged in Texas: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.03.8
20262.41.13.8
20272.51.13.9
20282.51.13.9
20292.51.13.9

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Booker6120241975
Pantex5020241974
Floydada3220241980
El Indio2819721970
Twichell2720231996
Gruver2520241994
Cactus2520241994
Weinert2119941969
Dalhart1520241994
Friona1320242001
Winchell1120101975
Oakwood1019861986
Texline1020241975
Henrietta920221975
Dougherty920241996
Skellytown820241996
San Pedro820171996
Olney720241969
Childress720241972
Haskell720241995
Williams720241996
Adamsville620231972
Eldorado620231975
Girard620232001
Ola520141980

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.