BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Arkansas has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 746% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.17–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±466.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+746%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±466.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 746% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.17–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±466.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.141.00
20260.580.151.0
20270.580.151.0
20280.590.161.0
20290.600.171.0

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1220182010
Russell420212010
Saffell320191993
Ravenden Springs320142010
Eudora219931993
South Bend219981967
Zion220231995
Avoca219831967
Centerton220112011
Locust Bayou120022002
Ashdown120071974
Hughes119971967
Hollywood120172014
Harrisburg120072005
Whitton119781978
Augusta120011987
Massard119701970
Maynard119961994
Fulton120241983
Compton120032003
Marshall120172017
Havana120152015
Sims120132013
Gillett120242024
Stephens120162011

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.