BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.001.6
20260.420.001.6
20270.380.001.5
20280.350.001.5
20290.310.001.5

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler2120231969
Warroad1519931993
Sherburne Nr1120241990
Beltrami1020241967
Brainerd820021993
Big Stone720121995
Pine River620181968
Grygla619961978
Badger520091984
Caledonia520122005
Tracy520242005
Ash Creek420231975
Backus420221968
Nett Lake420132013
Greenbush420241993
Wylie319921972
Bigfork319981998
Huntley219871967
Lakeville220011968
Maynard220131977
Princeton220191970
Cohasset219731973
Bemidji219791979
Le Roy220051994
Austin220111999

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.