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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.03–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.03–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.212.5
20261.30.172.5
20271.30.122.4
20281.20.072.4
20291.20.032.3

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quinby1920241966
Wylliesburg1020191976
Taylorstown820101967
Moran820241996
Brandy Station620242017
Partlow520071977
Natural Brid420241978
Concord420241970
Ivanhoe419681966
Ringgold420241983
Branchville420171967
Rural Retrt420181982
Hebron420091981
Chincoteag W420241992
Stanley320191966
Port Royal320191980
Newbern319821971
Sharps320241967
Finchley320211994
Appomattox320241995
Cape Charles320181992
Churchville220241966
Edinburg219831970
Jerome220141972
Great Falls219681966

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.