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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.01–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.01–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.202.5
20271.30.152.4
20281.30.112.4
20291.20.062.4
20301.20.012.3

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quinby1920251966
Wylliesburg1020191976
Taylorstown820101967
Sharps820251967
Ringgold820251983
Natural Brid620251978
White Stone620251966
Star Tannery520251977
Partlow520071977
Concord420241970
Surry420251998
Ivanhoe419681966
Branchville420171967
Rural Retrt420181982
Hebron420091981
Moran420251996
Chincoteag W420241992
Churchville320251966
Newbern319821971
Church Road320251966
Finchley320211994
Appomattox320241995
Brandy Station320252017
Nat Tunnel320251981
Cape Charles320181992

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.