BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 131% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+131%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±182.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 131% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.007.9
20263.60.007.8
20273.50.007.7
20283.40.007.6
20293.30.007.5

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamilton1419851972
New Hampton1320242014
Lucerne1320212016
Bolckow919921967
Emden920242017
Kahoka719981967
Kirksville720241994
Laclede620241994
Luray620242015
Warren519791967
Danville420241967
Huntsville420241967
Stet419951972
Frazier420241967
Sticklervill420241970
Graniteville419861986
Barnard420191999
Peace Valley320231980
Washington319761967
Hayden320191977
Ohio320241972
Sni Mills319901970
Rensselaer320241971
Madison320241971
Tarkio319891968

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.