BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±181.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.40.007.6
20273.30.007.5
20283.20.007.4
20293.10.007.3
20303.00.007.3

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hampton2020252014
Lucerne1620252016
Hamilton1419851972
Luray1220252015
Kirksville1120251994
Mcfall1120251994
Sticklervill1020251970
Bolckow919921967
Emden920242017
Lincoln820252013
Kahoka719981967
Laclede620241994
Akers520251968
Reeds520251974
Warren519791967
Huntsville520251967
Sedalia520251991
Danville420241967
Stet419951972
Frazier420241967
Graniteville419861986
Barnard420191999
Peace Valley320231980
Washington319761967
Hayden320191977

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.