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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Kentucky has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has collapsed in Kentucky: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.5
20260.000.002.5
20270.000.002.5
20280.000.002.5
20290.000.002.5

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hudson420161966
Goshen419921966
Glencoe420181966
Lebanon Junction420132000
Iron Bridge319981966
Dixon320222005
Mckee319781967
Demunbruns320051966
Drakesboro319931973
Levee 2320192007
Shiloh220231967
Cedar Grove220151966
Pleasurevill220241980
Kings Mtn220241966
Mcbrayer220171966
Kehoe 2220112005
Boxville219831966
Daniel Boone219701970
Kehoe219761966
Bays Fork220191999
Cumberlnd Gp120081995
Lovelacevile120001970
Canton120151967
Keysburg120161968
Sulphur Lick120241967

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.