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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Oklahoma has surged: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+321%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has surged in Oklahoma: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 9.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 9.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.714
2027117.815
2028118.015
2029118.115
2030128.315

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear Lake8420251994
Hardesty5620241970
Hooker3620251992
Lookout2720251967
Sickles2720211994
Tegarden2620161967
Beaver2520181979
Cooperton2520251992
Keyes2520241992
Grimes2220251968
Douglas2220221967
Bartlesville1520251967
Arapaho1420141992
Phroso1320251991
Matoy1120001992
Cashion1120241992
Reed1020191972
Hunter920241992
Colony819951995
Wichita Mts West820252004
Barnsdall719761967
Foraker720251992
Jet720241992
Ft Sill East719941994
Woodward620251992

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.