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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in North Carolina has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.23–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.23–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.201.9
20261.00.211.9
20271.00.211.9
20281.00.221.9
20291.10.231.9

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherryville1619681966
Mooresville 21220242006
Ostwalt920242012
Flay820241990
Jackson520171995
Madison419851981
Hamlet419981995
Sheffield420241991
Monticello420241994
Eden420241987
Mooresville320011982
Osmond320062002
Hulls Xroads320231997
Rowland320241990
Raeford220081990
Fairmont219691969
Saxapahaw220231967
Climax220221966
Youngsville220231969
Siloam220242005
Lake Surf220042004
Pinetops220241997
Biscoe220091991
Dortches220241990
Bullock220242010

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.