BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026134.821
2027134.721
2028134.721
2029134.721
2030134.721

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorham9320251968
Cedar Creek6520221968
Ft Yates4720041968
Carson4620251988
Sydney4319831968
Golva3420251979
Dickinson3120251968
Denbigh3020251968
Solen2720252005
Lake George2620231967
Sheyenne Lk2220251980
Dunn Center2020251968
Horsehead Lk1920251980
Glen Ullin1920251982
Bentley1820241988
Danzig 21820252019
Roosevelt Pk1220181982
Tobacco1120191968
Regan1020251968
Zap1020241967
Braddock720231988
Danzig620141982
Parshall620131982
Carpio520231967
Montpelier520251990

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.