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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.5–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.5–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025134.621
2026134.621
2027134.521
2028134.521
2029134.521

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Creek6520221968
Dickinson6120241968
Ft Yates4720041968
Carson4520241988
Sydney4319831968
Gorham4220181968
Golva3820231979
Solen3620242005
Glen Ullin2020221982
Sheyenne Lk2020241980
Bentley1820241988
Dunn Center1420241968
Danzig 21420242019
Horsehead Lk1320241980
Roosevelt Pk1220181982
Tobacco1120191968
Denbigh1020241968
Zap1020241967
Regan720221968
Stanley720241967
Danzig620141982
Parshall620131982
Montpelier620241990
Carpio520231967
Bowman520241967

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.