BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Grasshopper Sparrow in Ohio has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Grasshopper Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grasshopper Sparrow has collapsed in Ohio: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±290.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±290.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grasshopper Sparrow in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±290.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.9
20260.000.001.9
20270.000.001.9
20280.000.001.9
20290.000.001.9

Grasshopper Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Grasshopper Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newport1219941966
Lenox619811966
Tecumseh519821966
Stonecreek420221996
New Dover420221966
W Carrollton420081989
Hiram420082006
Lockport319961974
Troy319951966
Kenton320241966
Marion320051966
Bismark219951969
Ashley220131988
Mohican S.F.219951995
Herner Crns220051966
No Kenton220241966
Lucerne220112000
Maysville220121992
Winterset219831967
Darrtown220181966
Harveysburg219951966
Wilmington219941966
Bolins Mills219951967
Coal Run219921966
Rome220241966

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.