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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Texas has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Texas: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Texas is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 1.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Texas is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 1.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.61.314
20277.61.314
20287.51.214
20297.51.214
20307.51.214

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Horned Lark in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twichell17020251996
Waka15220251975
Cactus13920251994
Gruver13220251994
Claytonville12820221995
Pantex11220251974
Booker10620251975
Dalhart10020251994
Dougherty8120251995
Lamesa7920251968
Panhandle7120251994
Plains6620171994
Texline6120251975
Floydada5620251976
Friona5020252001
Weinert4919941969
Indianola4220121967
Kermit3919941994
Saragosa3620252022
Circle3220241968
Miami3020251975
Haskell2520251995
Stiles2520251995
Hawley2520251994
Tenmile2520232002

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.