BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Texas has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Texas: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Texas is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Texas is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.51.114
20267.41.114
20277.41.114
20287.41.014
20297.31.0014

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Horned Lark in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pantex31720241974
Twichell19020231996
Waka16320241975
Dalhart13520241994
Gruver13320241994
Claytonville12820221995
Lamesa10120241968
Texline8920241975
Friona8220242001
Dougherty7720241995
Cactus7520241994
Plains6620171994
Panhandle5820241994
Weinert4919941969
Floydada4320241976
Indianola4220121967
Booker3920241975
Kermit3919941994
Haskell3620241995
Circle3220241968
Miami3220241975
Hawley3020241994
Saragosa2720242022
Tenmile2520232002
Plains2320241968

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.