BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Oregon has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Oregon is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Oregon is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.60.0017
20267.50.0017
20277.40.0017
20287.40.0017
20297.30.0017

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Horned Lark in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Malheur Res.27120232022
Battle Mtn26820241985
Bowden Hills22820241999
Willow Spg19819711969
Blitzen 218220241994
Cecil18220241998
Lone Rock16820241968
Mikkalo16820231996
Three Forks13220242003
Montague13120241974
Crowley12420241983
Blitzen9919931971
Adrian9620211984
Umatilla8220231988
Zumwalt8020051995
Lookout Lake6719941985
Flook Lake5120241994
Princeton3319851972
Eightmile3120241982
Malheur Nwr2720221986
Wagontire2020241968
Blizzard Gap2020241984
Sheaville2020242012
Pendleton1620241972
Joseph1520101972

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.