BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Kentucky has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Kentucky: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Kentucky is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Kentucky is projected to fall about 86% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.001.1
20260.170.001.1
20270.150.001.1
20280.140.001.1
20290.120.001.1

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Horned Lark in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Grove1220241967
Pleasurevill720241979
Drakesboro419901971
Canton320151967
Eastview320241967
Lovelacevile220141967
Keysburg220221968
Bardwell220011967
Hodgenville219981967
Merrimac220211967
Shelbyville219691967
Buena Vista219811966
Cumberlnd Gp119931993
Shiloh119931967
Iron Bridge119791966
Sulphur Lick120231966
Sunnybrook120151974
Monticello120152007
Mckee119741968
Carter119761976
Levee119741974
Million119771968
Kings Mtn119831966
Mcbrayer119791975
Johnsonville120101966

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.