BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Georgia has surged: up 603% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+603%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Georgia: up 603% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.43 (95% range 0.19–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.43 (95% range 0.19–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.150.62
20260.400.160.63
20270.410.170.64
20280.420.180.65
20290.430.190.66

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Horned Lark in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Owensboro1120242010
Shiloh620242012
Henderson520242008
Doles420191993
White Hill420242021
Newton320212021
Wadley320221995
Philema320242010
Fitzgerald120242019
Nashville120152001
Athens119941983
Coffee Co120172015
Rutledge120231980
Finleyson120231984
Rentz120151998
Pitts120172009
Workmore120142013
Dover120242023
Union120172017
Weber120172017
Vidalia120142006

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.