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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Georgia has surged: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+524%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Georgia: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Georgia is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.20–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Georgia is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.20–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.160.62
20270.400.170.63
20280.410.180.64
20290.420.190.65
20300.430.200.66

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Horned Lark in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh720252012
Henderson520252008
Doles420191993
Newton320212021
Fitzgerald220252019
Wadley220251995
Workmore220252013
Owensboro220252010
Nashville120152001
Athens119941983
Coffee Co120172015
Rutledge120231980
Finleyson120231984
Rentz120151998
Pitts120172009
Dover120252023
Union120172017
Weber120172017
White Hill120252021
Philema120252010
Vidalia120142006

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.