BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Wyoming has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Wyoming is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.04–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Wyoming is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.04–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025242.746
2026242.045
2027231.445
2028220.7044
2029220.0443

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Horned Lark in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Creek18920241968
Black Rock 217520242010
Patrick Draw17419801973
Flamin Gorge17220241988
Black Rock16720011988
Patrick Draw 616520242010
Clarkelen14419781968
Bairoil13820241988
Meadowdale13619951983
Diamondville13619821977
Natrona13419921968
Patrick Draw 513320092004
Cheyenne13120241980
Gas Hills11920121991
Harmony11720231980
Pine Tree11619951980
Wamsutter11120241990
Rock River10320221990
Chugwater10320241979
Pine Bluff10220241979
Farson9420241995
Otto9320241970
Seedskadee 29220242024
Mckinnon8819861969
Patrick Draw 28419831981

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.