BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Wyoming has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Wyoming is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.08–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Wyoming is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 0.08–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026242.746
2027242.045
2028231.444
2029220.7244
2030220.0843

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Horned Lark in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Creek19920251968
Patrick Draw17419801973
Black Rock16720011988
Patrick Draw 615120252010
Clarkelen14419781968
Black Rock 213720252010
Diamondville13619821977
Wamsutter13520251990
Flamin Gorge13520251988
Natrona13419921968
Pine Bluff13420251979
Patrick Draw 513320092004
Bairoil12320251988
Gas Hills11920121991
Pine Tree11619951980
Farson11220251995
Rock River10320221990
Chugwater10320241979
Seedskadee 29220242024
Mckinnon8819861969
Savageton8820252019
Harmony8420251980
Patrick Draw 28419831981
Sweetwater8220251980
Otto8120251970

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.