BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Delaware has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Delaware. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Delaware is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Delaware is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.717
2026115.917
2027126.017
2028126.117
2029126.217

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Horned Lark in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holleyville2220041966
Pepperbox2220161998
Harrington1820241966
Frankford1720121966
Frederica1620141966
Milton 21620172017
Holleyville 21320242006
Pepperbox 21020242017
Blackbird720241994
Mt Pleasant520191966
Dover519861966
Lowes Xrds419911966
Milton320161966
Millsboro320242017
Georgetown320221992
Wilmington120091967
Bethany Bch119901966

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.