BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark

AlaudidaeGrassland birdsEremophila alpestris

Horned Lark has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,519RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Horned Lark

The Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris) is a North American member of the Larks (Alaudidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
6.5–8 in long (16–20 cm) — a small ground bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 2,519 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 47 states, most concentrated in the Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Family
Alaudidae · Grassland birds

Notable Horned Lark TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.917
2026127.917
2027127.917
2028127.917
2029127.817

Where the Horned Lark Is Detected

BBS routes recording Horned Lark, sized by most recent count.

Horned Lark Population Trend by State

Horned Lark population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-25%196915
Alaska+83%19868
Arizona-73%197070
Arkansas-24%196923
California-74%1970159
Colorado-50%1970114
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a1
Delaware+46%196817
Georgia+603%198421
Idaho+9%197044
Illinois-71%1968102
Indiana-35%196865
Iowa-86%196939
Kansas+8%196967
Kentucky-81%196841
Louisiana-29%197313
Maine-83%19798
Maryland-51%196866
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a4
Michigan-38%196872
Minnesota+178%196965
Mississippi+26%196922
Missouri-57%196975
Montana-1%197087
Nebraska+6%196975
Nevada-30%197054
New Jersey-63%196812
New Mexico-63%197077
New York-35%196876
North Carolina+461%197446
North Dakota-32%196951
Ohio-14%196876
Oklahoma12×196955
Oregon+35%197064
Pennsylvania-62%1968100
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
South Carolina-65%198517
South Dakota-72%196954
Tennessee-71%196832
Texas+80%1969117
Utah+59%197097
Vermont-74%19698
Virginia-82%196839
Washington-47%197047
West Virginia-93%196820
Wisconsin-8%196879
Wyoming-39%1970124

Horned Lark Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Horned Lark population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4-77%19865
Northern Pacific Rainforest-98%197415
Great Basin-6%1970223
Northern Rockies-31%1970137
Prairie Potholes+61%1969123
Boreal Hardwood Transition-66%196853
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-40%196873
Atlantic Northern Forest-93%196919
Sierra Nevada-81%19718
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-59%1970176
Badlands and Prairies-56%1969125
Shortgrass Prairie-11%1969133
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-5%1969119
Edwards Plateau-49%19715
Oaks and Prairies-92%196939
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-56%1968270
Prairie Hardwood Transition+4%1968151
Central Hardwoods-28%1968111
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+109%197113
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-34%196852
Southeastern Coastal Plain+347%196891
Appalachian Mountains-86%1968180
Piedmont-31%196869
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-56%196885
Coastal California-89%197081
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-53%197081
Sierra Madre Occidental-15%197023
Chihuahuan Desert-70%196932
Tamaulipan Brushlands+154%197010
Gulf Coastal Prairie-97%196914

Horned Lark Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 62% since 1968. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.