BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 11–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 11–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026441178
2027441178
2028441178
2029441178
2030441178

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlasgowMONTANA4142025
OswegoMONTANA3442025
VirgelleMONTANA2862025
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA2171984
GildfordMONTANA2112025
ShelbyMONTANA2062025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1762025
WestbyMONTANA1752025
RedstoneMONTANA1692025
HarlemMONTANA1622021
SunburstMONTANA1472007
GlentanaMONTANA1412025
LambertMONTANA1242025
Ester LakeMONTANA1032025
Great FallsMONTANA942025
SacoMONTANA872025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA831983
LockhartMINNESOTA802025
ChinookMONTANA802025
WhitlashMONTANA782024
Hay LakeMONTANA662025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA662025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA622025
Wolf PointMONTANA602024
BeltramiMINNESOTA552025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.