BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 9.9–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 44 (95% range 9.9–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025441078
2026441078
2027441078
2028449.978
2029449.978

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Horned Lark in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlasgowMONTANA3962024
VirgelleMONTANA3032024
OswegoMONTANA2802024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA2171984
RedstoneMONTANA2052024
GildfordMONTANA1982024
ShelbyMONTANA1742024
HarlemMONTANA1622021
WestbyMONTANA1612024
SunburstMONTANA1472007
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1412024
Hay LakeMONTANA1392022
GlentanaMONTANA1372024
ChinookMONTANA1312024
Ester LakeMONTANA1272024
SacoMONTANA852024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA831983
Great FallsMONTANA802024
WhitlashMONTANA782024
LambertMONTANA772024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA722024
Wolf PointMONTANA602024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA602022
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA572024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA542010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.